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Original: 9/10/2008 12:18 AM
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iamdorajfai

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

無形的手

 

立會08選舉塵埃落定,直選方面,泛民得票率和實際得票都較上屆少,但所得議席不減反增,全靠泛民候選人得票異常平均,政治評論員蔡子強形容是「上帝擲骰子」,泛民要「還神」。假設泛民重蹈上屆合組「鑽石名單」覆轍,在新界東結果將如下圖所示只得3席,減少的一席落入田少手中。選票數目相同,但出選安排不同,就產生不同結果,比例代表制是絕不簡單的simple majority。因為難以捉摸,選民又不受落配票,泛民唯一可操控的策略就是夾埋一齊選,卻不能得益於制度的特性。不過,要利用制度,就要確保各人得票均勻。今次放手一搏,竟然如有invisible hand將選票分配得宜,當中原因實值得學者研究。

legco08nte
 Posted 9/10/2008 12:18 AM - 71 Views - 2 eProps - 2 comments

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Visit iamdorajfai's Xanga Site!
實力 / 吸票能力相若的盟友是應該分開出選的(當然還要看陪跑份子多不多),走運的話,50,000張票可能已夠兩人當算,值得博。
Posted 9/17/2008 11:28 AM by iamdorajfai - reply

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用番新東個case,5萬票拿兩席難d卦...九西就最抵,鼠芬萬九幾票就當選.(19,914票)
Posted 9/17/2008 12:14 PM by gakmo - reply


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